I fear that we won't find ourselves out of Afghanistan until the country actually splits up. We may end up with a chaotic version of Germany post-WWII. There may be a region that US/NATO can establish order and that area becomes its own country while the "breakaway districts" remain the same uncivilized backwater that the region has been for centuries. I just don't see how a Western-led security and financial group can create a strong enough govt for that country to stand on its own any time in the near future.

Iraqis know what living in a stable (although oppressive) country is like and can see themselves returning that way. There doesn't seem to be any interest on the part of the many Afghani tribes to see a central government do anything other than maintain the fractious status quo.